HBF Wales Weekly News Summary Friday 2 November 2007

Top stories this week Slower - but steady - market in 2008, CML forecasts ... read League table reveals greenest house builders ... read EPCs delayed until 6th April... read

HBF Wales are pleased to announce that Barry Cummings, Managing Director at Bovis Homes Wales, has agreed to take up the position of HBF Wales Chairman. Barry's appointment has come at a very timely juncture, as the requirement for new homes hits the top of the political agenda and as HBF are establishing a new level of partnership working with the Welsh Assembly Government. Among his responsibilities as Chairman, Barry will be representing Wales on the HBF Council and will therefore have a chance to voice members concerns in Wales at a UK level.

We would like to thank Barry for accepting the position and welcome the chance to benefit from his expertise, as we attempt to face the difficult challenges that lie ahead.

A Greener Homes and Buildings National Exhibition supporting the sustainable building sector will take place in Builth Wells next year. The event is being managed and funded by DE&T Mid Wales and will be held at Glamorgan Hall, Royal Welsh Showground, Builth Wells from 7th - 9th March 2008. The focus of the event is to feature eco-products and services available from a range of businesses to design, build, furnish and renovate buildings. Workshops will be held daily offering practical information on sustainable construction and renovation.

View more information on this event

House prices will fall by up to 6% in some areas of the UK during 2008, with Wales among the worst affected, an economic research group predicted yesterday.

Capital Economics said it expected house prices across the country to fall by 3% during both 2008 and 2009 as the recent credit crunch exacerbated the current slowdown in the housing market.

Read more

An important milestone in Wales' drive to increase renewable energy was reached today as First Minister Rhodri Morgan announced a new era in the development of wind farms.

Forestry Commission managed land is to be leased for the construction of wind turbines to step up Wales' contribution to combating climate change, the First Minister told the Wales Forum on Europe at a sustainable energy event in Swansea.

Read more

Two energy companies are developing plans to build an underwater tidal power station off Pembrokeshire.
Eon UK and Lunar Energy have submitted their proposal for the project near St David's to the UK Government.

Read more

House price inflation is likely to remain positive, property transactions are set to remain above one million annually, interest rates are set to fall by three-quarters of one per cent, and gross lending will decline but is still set to exceed 2005 levels, according to the 2008 housing market forecasts published by the Council of Mortgage Lenders this week.

They forecast that the effect of the credit crunch has been to exacerbate trends that were already emerging in terms of a slowdown in the house purchase market. With the effect of the interest rate rises since summer 2006, and of the estimated 1.4 million households whose short-term fixed rate deals are due to expire in 2008, the CML was already expecting arrears and possessions to rise. But this trend will be worse than previously expected, according to the CML, because of the funding constraints and tightening of lending criteria resulting in reduced re-mortgaging opportunities across the lending spectrum but particularly for borrowers in the adverse credit (sub-prime) sector.

The latest October House Price Report from Nationwide Building Society shows:

View the full report

The Land Registry's September House Price Index was published this week showing that Yorkshire & The Humber overtook London as the region with the highest monthly house price growth, with an increase of 2 per cent. London's house price rise was 1.3 per cent in September, a slight dip from last month's increase of 1.5 per cent.

Four regions experienced negative price movement, the greatest being West Midlands with a change of -0.7 per cent for the month. The average house price in England and Wales was £183,896; the London average was £354,272.

The Land Registry report that the annual change in house prices is 8.7 per cent for England and Wales whilst in London the figure is 16.5 per cent.

Read full report

HBF's monthly survey of house builders revealed a significant downturn in new home reservations in August and September compared with the same time last year. The September survey also showed some weakening in new home prices and increasing use of sales incentives. House builders are now far less optimistic about the path of house prices over the next 12 months. Over the last few months they have become more concerned about the impact of buyer confidence, mortgage rates and mortgage terms on housing demand. Stocks and work in progress have built up a little, but they are not a serious problem. Planning delays remain by far the most serious constraint on housing production.

Full HBF survey results, and a monthly analysis of market trends, are available in Housing Market Report

Britons are more fiercely committed to home ownership than ever, despite the fact rising prices and lack of supply have turned first-time buyers "into an endangered species."

As a result, the next generation of first-time buyers could end up never being able to get out of rented accommodation - a prospect that worries well over 80 per cent of the population, according to a YouGov poll conducted for the New Homes Marketing Board (NHMB).

"Our polls already show that most people understand that the difficulties faced by first-time buyers is turning them into an endangered species and actually amounts to a serious social problem. Now we see that the alternative - a lifetime condemned to renting - fills most people with dread" said New Homes Marketing Board Chairman David Pretty CBE....

..We're now looking at a situation where perhaps the lost generation of people who can't afford to buy the home they need today may not be able to afford to rent a decent home in the future either - and that's a social timebomb, particularly if those renters never have the opportunity to build up equity to supplement their future pensions" said Mr Pretty."

View the full press release, YouGov survey results and facts on first-time buyers

New research published last Friday shows that even a 60% increase in South East house building will not stop prices rising, says the South East England Regional Assembly (SEERA).

SEERA say that figures from the National Housing and Planning Advice Unit risk confusing people by suggesting that we can simply build our way out of a crisis in house prices, says Assembly Chairman Cllr Keith Mitchell CBE.

He said:

"A close look at the figures shows that a 64% increase in building to 46,000 homes a year would still see South East prices rise from 8x average salary to 11x average salary in 2026. The figures also ignore the cost of services and infrastructure for new homes and cut across the democratic process of agreeing regional housing figures."

View full report

The Chesterton Meta-Index October 2007 compiled by the centre for economics and business research (cebr) has been released this week. The key finding from the research is that the average residential property price of a flat/apartment/maisonette in the UK is now £165,724, which is more than the average residential property price of a semi-detached house (£163,049) or a terraced property (£136,696).

Yvette Cooper launched a report this week which ranks the 20 largest British house builders according to their sustainable policies.

According to the "Building a sustainable future' report by Next Generation, 65% of the candidates have included waste management strategies in their planning and 60% have made efforts to build their homes more energy efficiently.

However, the report said the industry had a long way to go before it achieved the Government's goal of delivering 240,000 zero-carbon homes a year by 2016.
The report finds that only 25% of candidates realise their business' impact on carbon emissions and only 15% have put sustainable procurement policies in place.

Next Generation is supported by Insight Investment, WWF UK and the Housing Corporation.

Next Generation's rankings can be found in their summary report

The Government have advised that final, post-completion Energy Performance Certificates will now be required for new homes from 6 April 2008, rather than 1 January 2008 as originally stated.

The information posted on the Government website states the following:

Note: A ‘predictive Energy Performance Certificate' (SAP Rating) is still required to market a new home as part of the Home Information Pack legislation. This currently applies for 3 and 4 bedroom homes only.

Housing and Planning Minister Yvette has confirmed that an ideas competition will be run to develop and set the design standards for ten new eco-towns.

The Government's adviser on architecture and urban design CABE, with the Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA) and The Prince's Foundation for the Built Environment, will assist the Government in the competition and establish a judging panel to assess the entries.

The competition will focus both on the practical design ideas and the design and development process. A prize will be made available for the overall winner of the competition, as well as awards for specialist areas.

There will also be an opportunity for public involvement to judge eco-towns designs through a citizens' panel. At the end of the competition, the best of the ideas and lessons learned will be drawn together in an exhibition and eco-towns "compendium", which will help inform the thinking of local authorities and developers taking forward eco-town proposals.

Environment Secretary, Hilary Benn has this week set out details of a strengthened, more effective and more transparent Bill to help tackle climate change.

When originally published in March 2007, the draft Bill set out clear legally binding targets for reducing carbon dioxide emissions in the UK by at least 60 per cent by 2050, and from 26 to 32 per cent by 2020. The Committee on Climate Change has now been asked to report on whether these targets should be strengthened.

View more on the Climate Change Bill

The proportion of new homes built on previously developed land (PDL) in England fell to 72% in 2006 from 74% in 2005, the first decrease since 1997, according to CLG statistics. The proportion including conversions was 74%. Between 2003 and 2005, an average 4,340 hectares per year changed to residential use.

The average residential density in 2006 was 41 dwellings per hectare (dph), up from 40 dph in 2005. Regional average densities in 2006 varied from 34 dph in the East Midlands and East to 49 dph in the North West and 80 dph in London. From 2003-06, average densities were 28 dph on land not previously developed and 44 dph on PDL, with an overall average of 38 dph.

Averaging over the period 2003-05, 3% of new dwellings were built on land designated as Green Belt, of which nearly two thirds (62%) was on PDL.

The increase in total net lending to individuals in September (£11.2 billion) was higher than in August and above the previous six-month average. The twelve-month growth rate was unchanged at 10.0% and the three-month annualised growth rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 9.6%.

Within the total, the increase in net lending secured on dwellings (£9.8 billion) was higher than in August and the previous six-month average. The twelve-month growth rate was unchanged at 10.9%. The three-month annualised growth rate rose, by 0.1 percentage points to 10.1%. The number of loans approved for house purchase (102,000) was lower than in August but those for re-mortgaging (101,000) and other purposes (67,000) were higher than in August.

The increase in net consumer credit in September (£1.4 billion) was above the increase in August. Net credit card lending rose by £0.3 billion, above the August increase. Net other loans and advances rose by £1.0 billion, in line with the increase in August. The annual growth rate of consumer credit increased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.8% and the three-month annualised growth rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 7.1%.

Evidence of a continuing high street slowdown is published in the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey. Although retail sales volumes increased over the year to October, the annual rate of growth is the weakest since November 2006 and, for the third month in a row below the long-term average. This indicates that the impact of five interest rate rises in a year is now being felt by consumers. Moderate growth in retail sales is expected to be sustained into November.

The HBF and a small group of house builders commented on the OFT's draft questionnaire for House Builders.

View HBF's response and the OFT's draft questionnaire

If you have forgotten your username or password to the website please email catherine.Wilson@hbf.co.uk

The final survey will be sent to a large sample of house builders, drawn from the NHBC registration list, in the next 2 weeks (subject to internal clearance within the OFT). It is understood that completed questionnaires will need to be returned within 4 weeks of receipt.

HBF Executive Chairman, Stewart Baseley, and Director of External Affairs, John Slaughter, met Matthew Taylor MP to discuss housing provision for rural communities. Mr Taylor is conducting a review for the Prime Minister to consider means of improving the sustainable development of more rural areas, including housing that meets local needs affordably. He has asked HBF to assist him by providing further briefing and case study material.

George Wimpey and Midas Homes took the innovator of the year accolades at the prestigious HBF/Housebuilder magazine Housebuilding Innovation Awards at the Millennium Mayfair Hotel on Thursday night (November 1). The awards, created to celebrate innovation across a range of disciplines in the housebuilding industry, were presented by former MP and now political pundit Michael Portillo. The awards recognise innovation in ten categories including best sustainability initiative, best design innovation and best use of materials and products.

Click here for a full list of winners

HBF has suggested that any proposals for restricting water supply in 'water-stressed areas" and possibly imposing higher charges should not be considered until water leakage has been reduced. The Environmental Agency should have a national strategy, possibly including serious consideration of a national grid for water. The proliferation of sustainable drainage systems is still being impeded by the lack of any mechanism for adoption and maintenance.

View the HBF consultation response (Members only)

If you have forgotten your username or password to the website please email catherine.Wilson@hbf.co.uk

Wednesday 30 January - One Birdcage Walk, London

The Government has called on the UK house building industry to increase house building levels to 240,000 homes per year and to build homes to zero carbon standards by 2016. This full day conference is perfectly timed at the start of next year to give delegates a detailed and comprehensive overview of the issues facing the industry.

For further details, please contact the Events Team on 020 7960 1646 or events@hbmedia.co.uk

The HBF Technical Conference entitled ‘the road to zero carbon is paved with building regulations' will be taking place at York Racecourse on Wednesday 14th November 2007.

View the full agenda for the day and book online

Or contact the Events Team 020 7960 1646

HBF Annual Yorkshire Dinner - 8th November
The HBF Annual Yorkshire Dinner will be held at a new venue this year - the Crown Hotel, Harrogate www.crownhotelharrogate.com  

The evening will commence at 7.30, for 8pm, with an opening speech from Rob Pearson, Yorkshire Area Director at English Partnerships and will be followed by a superb a three-course dinner. Dress code is lounge suits.

Tables of 10 or 12 are available.
Tickets are £70.00 per person excluding VAT

To book please download the booking form

Or contact the Events Team 020 7960 1646

HBF Annual North West Dinner - 8th February 2008

The HBF North West Social Dinner will be held at the Midland Hotel, Peter St, Manchester M60 2DS.

The evening commences at 7.30pm for 8.00pm with a three-course dinner and wine, followed by a live band and disco.

Cost £70 + VAT. Tables of 10 and 12 can be booked - if you require a larger table please contact the events team.

To book please download the booking form

Or contact the Events Team 020 7960 1646

Jo Weston