The first Thursday in May is a pretty big day politically. As well as the referendum on AV there are elections in 279 English local authorities in what will be billed as the first test of support for the coalition government’s policies, or more specifically, its deficit reduction plans. For the construction industry in general and house building in particular however, it’s what happens in the local areas following the elections which is most interesting and thought-provoking. Much is going to come down to pure politics. To start with, many local authorities have been relatively open about putting planning decisions on the back burner until after 5th May. Despite the desperate need for growth across the country, planning applications – both obviously contentious and seemingly straightforward – have been delayed for fear of provoking a backlash among voters. Council chiefs have been at pains to allay developers’ fears, saying that the plans will come through quickly in the summer but is this really likely? The first issue to examine is which are the councils in question? Obviously, they are by their very nature the ones facing the real potential for opposition to development. It’s easy to revert to stereotypes and assume that they’re wealthy rural areas around London, the East and the South East; villages and market towns in the South West, the Shires...all so-called Tory Heartlands. But it’s not just a stereotype, there is truth in them there hills, as this superb new resource from Shelter makes clear - http://england.shelter.org.uk/professional_resources/housing_insights So the councils are generally Conservative, add in the significant Lib Dem representation in the South West and the coalition government is the major force in the areas where housing demand is highest (mortgage famine for first time buyers notwithstanding). Traditionally local elections go against the ruling parties (watch this line being used by both parties to lower expectations) and it’s fair to say that the government hasn’t been particularly ‘popularist’ over the last 12 months so we can expect to see losses for both*. These losses will translate into more marginal local authorities or at least less secure majorities. Will councils who have taken a kicking decide that the best way to shore up support is by granting masses of planning applications considered too contentious before the elections? To add to this is the lack of political cover councils will have from central government. Ministers have variously diagnosed Stockholm syndrome for councillors now empowered where previously they looked to central government for guidance. The truth may be simpler, it’s easier to a) not have to take difficult decisions that will make you unpopular b) have someone to blame (and even campaign against). The move to localism means increasing responsibilities but those responsibilities have consequences; politically this becomes a sticky issue requiring strong and brave local government with excellent communication to the electorate. This is not meant to be utterly negative - there are, of course, many local authority leaders and councillors who absolutely understand the need for more housing, the social and economic benefits of growth. There are also sticks – not least the New Homes Bonus – to go along with the carrots offered by localism to encourage construction. Planning permissions have fallen from 223,694 in 2006 to just 134,143 last year – will 6th May be the turning point for new homes? *there is of course an argument to say that in many of the strongholds there is not enough opposition presence to put much of a dent in majorities. This does not explain why those councils would have put off planning decisions in the first place though
