The Welsh Government has today released its new estimates of housing need. The estimates show how many new homes need to be built over the next twenty years to address existing unmet need as well as newly arising need.
The figures show that around 8,700 new homes a year are needed over the next Senedd term up to 2030 to meet new housing need. In addition, there is an unmet need for 9,400 affordable homes.
This is more than double 2024/25 levels of supply, when just 4,638 new homes were built – the second-lowest year of delivery on record.
The figures for housing need show:
- Around 5,700 new homes for market sale and 3,060 Affordable Homes are needed every year to meet newly arising need – a 65%/35% tenure split.
- In addition, there is currently an existing unmet need of 9,400 affordable housing units.
- Since 2021, there has been an under delivery of around 10,500 homes. Future Wales: The National Plan 2040 set out a requirement for 7,400 to met the identified need. However, on average just 5,100 homes have been built every year since 2021.
In response to the figures, Mark Harris, Planning and Policy Advisor for Wales, said: "HBF welcomes the updated housing needs data, which clearly shows the importance of delivering private house building as well as affordable housing in Wales. This data is well timed as several Local Development Plans are moving forward with their reviews, and work starts on Strategic Development Plans in Wales.
Harris adds:“New house building will need to more than double from current levels to meet Wales’ housing need in the years ahead. To achieve this, increasing housing supply of all tenures must be a priority for the next Welsh Government. HBF is calling for full coverage of up-to-date Local Development Plans, a further extension of Help to Buy Wales, and the restoration of Technical Advice Notice 1 or a similar mechanism.”
HBF set out the industry’s asks of the next Welsh Government in our blueprint, ‘Increasing housing supply in Wales’.