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Briefings

Member Briefing: 2014 based Household Projections

Date: 12/07/16

2014 based Household Projections

DCLG has today published new, 2014-based household projections for England. The summary report is available at:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/536702/Household_Projections_-_2014_-_2039.pdf

The accompanying tables are available at:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-household-projections

DCLG stresses that these are projections, not forecasts. So for example they do not attempt to forecast the impact of policy changes, such as any post-Brexit reduction in inward migration from the EU. Projections “show the household numbers that would result if the assumptions based in previous demographic trends in the population and rates of household formation were to be realised in practice”.

Annual average household growth is projected to be 210,000 per year from 2014-39.

The average household size is projected to fall from 2.35 in 2014 to 2.21 in 2039. As a result, over the period 2014-39 the population is projected to grow by 16%, whereas household growth will be even more rapid at 23%.

The summary report provides a breakdown of projected household growth by household type and by age. One striking finding is that older households (65+) are projected to grow by 155,000 per year, with 53,000 per year growth projected for 85+ households. There is an almost direct correlation between age and rate of household growth – i.e. apart from the relatively small under-25 age group, the older the age group, the faster the percentage rate of household increase.

Net inward migration accounts for 49% of the projected increase in population over the period 2014-39, and 37% of the projected growth of households.

DCLG has done alternative, or variant projections using different migration assumptions. The low migration assumption – 108,000 people per year long-term inward migration against 170,500 per year in the main or central projection – cuts projected household growth 2014-39 from 210,000 to 177,000. The zero net inward migration assumption produces 133,000 per year household growth.

Comparing the latest household projections with the previous 2012-based projections, household growth is now projected to be 214,000 per year for the period 2012-37 (note this is different to the 2014-39 period covered by the latest projections), against 210,000 per year 2012-37 for the 2012-based projections

 

John Stewart

Director of Economic Affairs